Belmont Stakes 2011

[Ion Saliu]

I.
The third and last leg of the Triple Crown in horse racing — Belmont Stakes — takes place on Saturday, June 11, 6:35 PM (U.S.) ET.

I publish here the entries IN ORDER OF MORNING LINE, from the favorite to the longest shot. The betting-order could change (significantly sometimes) between the time of this writing and post time.

The horse names are preceded by the post positions (#1 is next to the rail). The list is formatted to show the top 5 favorites and the 5 long shots. I made one modification. I placed #8 (Prime Cut) in the 5th favorite position because of jockey. Edgar Prado has won the Belmont Stakes twice. In 2004, he rode Birdstone to beat a super horse, Smarty Jones (the horse of Pennsylvania and the favorite of millions).

9	Animal Kingdom	2-1
6	Nehro	4-1
12	Shackleford	9-2
10	Mucho Macho Man	10-1
8	Prime Cut	15-1

1	Master of Hounds	10-1
4	Santiva	    15-1

5	Brilliant Speed	15-1
2	Stay Thirsty	20-1
3	Ruler On Ice	20-1
7	Monzon	30-1
11	Isn't He Perfect	30-1

. . . Continues . . .

[Ion Saliu]

II.
I do it again: Publish results generated by my software. I don’t expect big payouts (except, maybe, for superfectas). Besides, I don’t have a data file (results by post position) specific to the Belmont Stakes. Actually, I don’t have such data for any Triple Crown race (Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes). They only referred me to paid-for results by horse name.

I ran BrightH3, option A = Advance to Menu #2, option R = Boxed & Random Trifectas, then option B = Boxed Combos (trifectas).

Since no data was available, I pressed X to exclude all filters. I only enabled the favorite numbers and the exclusions.

~ At least 2 of the top 5 favorites should be in the winning trifecta;
~ NOT 2 of the bottom 5 horses (according to the morning line) should appear in the winning trifecta.


Trifectas generated: 80 (boxed). One can run Shuffle.EXE to shuffle the file several times, and then select trifectas from the middle of the randomized file.

  1  6  8
  1  6  9
  1  6 10
  1  6 12
  1  8  9
  1  8 10
  1  8 12
  1  9 10
  1  9 12
  1 10 12
  2  6  8
  2  6  9
  2  6 10
  2  6 12
  2  8  9
  2  8 10
  2  8 12
  2  9 10
  2  9 12
  2 10 12
  3  6  8
  3  6  9
  3  6 10
  3  6 12
  3  8  9
  3  8 10
  3  8 12
  3  9 10
  3  9 12
  3 10 12
  4  6  8
  4  6  9
  4  6 10
  4  6 12
  4  8  9
  4  8 10
  4  8 12
  4  9 10
  4  9 12
  4 10 12
  5  6  8
  5  6  9
  5  6 10
  5  6 12
  5  8  9
  5  8 10
  5  8 12
  5  9 10
  5  9 12
  5 10 12
  6  7  8
  6  7  9
  6  7 10
  6  7 12
  6  8  9
  6  8 10
  6  8 11
  6  8 12
  6  9 10
  6  9 11
  6  9 12
  6 10 11
  6 10 12
  6 11 12
  7  8  9
  7  8 10
  7  8 12
  7  9 10
  7  9 12
  7 10 12
  8  9 10
  8  9 11
  8  9 12
  8 10 11
  8 10 12
  8 11 12
  9 10 11
  9 10 12
  9 11 12
 10 11 12

. . . Continues . . .

[Ion Saliu]

III.
A more liberal strategy, with a better chance of winning, but at a higher price:

~ At least 1 of the top 5 favorites should be in the winning trifecta;
~ NO MORE than 1 of the bottom 5 horses (according to the morning line) should appear in the winning trifecta.


Trifectas generated: 135 (boxed). One can run Shuffle.EXE to shuffle the file several times, and then select trifectas from the middle of the randomized file.

  1  2  6
  1  2  8
  1  2  9
  1  2 10
  1  2 12
  1  3  6
  1  3  8
  1  3  9
  1  3 10
  1  3 12
  1  4  6
  1  4  8
  1  4  9
  1  4 10
  1  4 12
  1  5  6
  1  5  8
  1  5  9
  1  5 10
  1  5 12
  1  6  7
  1  6  8
  1  6  9
  1  6 10
  1  6 11
  1  6 12
  1  7  8
  1  7  9
  1  7 10
  1  7 12
  1  8  9
  1  8 10
  1  8 11
  1  8 12
  1  9 10
  1  9 11
  1  9 12
  1 10 11
  1 10 12
  1 11 12
  2  4  6
  2  4  8
  2  4  9
  2  4 10
  2  4 12
  2  6  8
  2  6  9
  2  6 10
  2  6 12
  2  8  9
  2  8 10
  2  8 12
  2  9 10
  2  9 12
  2 10 12
  3  4  6
  3  4  8
  3  4  9
  3  4 10
  3  4 12
  3  6  8
  3  6  9
  3  6 10
  3  6 12
  3  8  9
  3  8 10
  3  8 12
  3  9 10
  3  9 12
  3 10 12
  4  5  6
  4  5  8
  4  5  9
  4  5 10
  4  5 12
  4  6  7
  4  6  8
  4  6  9
  4  6 10
  4  6 11
  4  6 12
  4  7  8
  4  7  9
  4  7 10
  4  7 12
  4  8  9
  4  8 10
  4  8 11
  4  8 12
  4  9 10
  4  9 11
  4  9 12
  4 10 11
  4 10 12
  4 11 12
  5  6  8
  5  6  9
  5  6 10
  5  6 12
  5  8  9
  5  8 10
  5  8 12
  5  9 10
  5  9 12
  5 10 12
  6  7  8
  6  7  9
  6  7 10
  6  7 12
  6  8  9
  6  8 10
  6  8 11
  6  8 12
  6  9 10
  6  9 11
  6  9 12
  6 10 11
  6 10 12
  6 11 12
  7  8  9
  7  8 10
  7  8 12
  7  9 10
  7  9 12
  7 10 12
  8  9 10
  8  9 11
  8  9 12
  8 10 11
  8 10 12
  8 11 12
  9 10 11
  9 10 12
  9 11 12
 10 11 12

Best of luck!

Ion Saliu
Theory and Strategy of Horseracing Wagering or Betting
Horse Races, Horse Racing, Horses: Betting, Systems, Payoffs For To-Win, Exactas, Trifectas

[Ion Saliu]

What an extraordinary race at Belmont Stakes 2011! The top 3 finishers were from the BOTTOM 5 horses (according to the morning line and post time betting).

3-2-5-6

Only horse #6 (4th in the finish) was from the TOP 5.

Still, trifecta only paid $8,268! That’s why I said I had expected LOW payouts. By contrast, the trifecta at Kentucky Derby 2005 paid over $300,000.

I only casually selected 5 boxed trifectas from the first output file (with 80 combosnations). I was also aware of the weather. It was supposed to be nasty. Matter of fact, as soon as the Belmont broadcast ended (7 PM ET), the TV programming was interrupted by the proverbial warning . . . Severe flood flush warning . . . Severe thunderstorms warning . . . Even two tornado warnings (as we speak) . . . I am sick and tired of all that shi*ty-child crying! Clock the speed and height of the rotation, Doppler-radar video gamers!

I any event, there was rain at Belmont. The track was awful. Bad weather can lead to scratches and all kinds of “events”. And event it was! The favorite, #9, had a horrific start! The horse and the jockey were lucky to avoid very dangerous injuries (could be deadly at times, for the horse).

Isn’t it best to play the favorites from the bottom-5 and make exclusions from the top-5? Granted, you’ll get somehow fewer winning trifectas. But you’ll get significantly higher payouts. That’s how some use my horseracing software.

And they, with good bankrolls, even press me hard to give them superfectas software! NOT! Yes, MDIEditor and Lotto WE has a superfectas module. It is, however, more limited (like the rest of the modules in MDIE . . . Windows is still unattractive to me because of performance issues . . .)

The guys try to twist my hand or to lick my butt. Nothing works . . . or will work . . . for a good while. I am NOT under any obligation to satisfy demands for software. If I accept offers for specialized software, it would be at the price I set. “Verify first” will not be a choice.

So, for now, my superfectas software is not going to . . . go to anyone, but me. By the way, I noticed on TV: The guys were influenced by this very thread! It was a party of self-deprecation! All those experts became candidly honest: Horse handicapping is a myth! In the last 30 years, the favorite at Belmont won only 20% of the races! No winner from both Kentucky and Preakness won Belmont since 1979! The trifectas (superfectas, even more so) do not repeat (including boxed) from several years back — across all 3 Triple Crown races!

One smart TV sports guy said :”The winner will come from those thousands of possibilities!” That means: Only RANDOMNESS is Almighty!

I hear the lightening . . . the boomgarzow is approaching at a moderate pace . . . slower than the pace at Belmont Stakes 2011 . . .

Ion “Parpaluck” Saliu