Does W & L streaks' frequency and length effect each other?

[jimmy_liu_1985]

Hi all and dear Mr. Saliu:

I read your book and web pages about roulette, and those articles really changed the way I look at roulette. I then wrote some program to do some test on 'Free No.1 Roulette System' using software 'Roulette Xtreme', and now I have some questions that need some help.

I treat 2 columns as one part and the third one as on part. After 2 consecutive L streak of the second part appear, I start to bet on the first part(as your system mentioned) after every further 'L' appears. Then I found in most of the time, a 5 step Martingale would keep the bankrol going up, but in couple of times in every 10,000 spins, the Martingale will beyond 5 steps.(and it's very interesting that no matter how much steps i added the Martingale to, 'bad time' will happen anyway, once in 100,000 or raerer though).

Then I try to anylise the 'bad time' record, found that:

1: After the first 2 consecutive 'L' streak, there is a long showing of part one. I remember Ion once mentioned in the theory that "If consecutive 'L' streak and short 'W' happend, it is safe to bet that there would be a single 'L' then...." so my question is: does the lenght of the two streak affect each other? For example: long 'W' between consecutive 'L' will reduce the possibility of the next 'L' to be single, in our case, longer consecutive 'L' s.

2: The long consecutive 'L's are combined with, mostly, 2 'L's, so my second question is that: does 'L' streak get short when it is more frequent?

Cheers

[Ion Saliu]

Jimmy:

I must address you as Kokodrilo (big-time gambler). You certainly look to me that way. I have a way with creating words and names. When I coined kokodrilo it was unique in search engines. Later, it turned out to be a creek in Costa Rica (although they stole the name I created!) But many people adopted my kokodrilo word. There are now quite a few kokodrilo user names, although it is cocodrilo in Spanish. People get addicted to the names I create. Even names that sound very, very bad! For example, the worst names I created were Psychosama and Psycholin. Cyber World has now quite a few ‘Netizens named Psychosama or Psycholin! People even hijack my own nickname — Parpaluck!

Kokodrilo, I can see English is not your primary language. That’s why you make the streaks appear to be like human beings! You ask if the streaks . . . affect each other! Hey, the streaks are not humans — therefore they do NOT affect one other! The streaks are NOT affected by anybody or anything. The streaks are the results of mathematics.

The streaks can be easily calculated by my probability software: Streaks.EXE. Real-life will always closely show streaks as calculated by math. By contrast, the Psychosamas (gambling honchos, usually casino moles) would always mouth-foam scream that only the gambler’s fallacy rules! The gambler must expect a never-ending losing streak . . . losing ad infinitum. The Psychosamas would never accept the equivalent concept of reversed gambler’s fallacy. That is, the gambler can expect to win ad infinitum — one win after another . . . forever!

Infinity is a mathematical absurdity. Therefore, both the gambler’s fallacy and the reversed gambler’s fallacy are false concepts — they are absurdities. All-Reality is finite in Space and Time. All numbers are finite — mathematically defined in Time and Space. Mathematics proves undeniably that Things occur with a random probability, and with a random degree of certainty within a number of trials (events).

I doubt a human will ever be able to play 100,000 roulette spins uninterruptedly! Skipping trials will predominantly skip losing situations for lower-probability events (e.g. 2-dozen miss). Nevertheless, Streaks.EXE can calculate the amount of streaks for any probability and number of trials — including interrupted trials.

I’ll take a more reasonable number of trials: 1000 roulette spins. I assume UNinterrupted spins — the gambler plays continuously at the same roulette table. The play is 2-dozen (or 2-column). The probability to win is 24 / 38 (double-zero roulette that’s my game). The loss probability is the reverse: 14 / 38 (the other dozen / column hitting, or 0, or 00).

The kokodrilos are more concerned about losing than winning. How many times can kokodrilo encounter exactly 5 losses in a row, if playing 2 dozens or 2 columns? Streaks.EXE says 3 times in 1000 roulette spins. Equivalently, how many times can kokodrilo encounter exactly 5 consecutive wins, if playing 2 dozens or 2 columns? Streaks.EXE calculates 14 times in 1000 roulette spins — almost 5 times more often. Clearly, the gambler can bet almost like blindfolded on winning 5 consecutive times, compared to losing 5 times in a row! A 5-length winning streak occurs about every 72 roulette spins. Forget about Psychosamas’ gambler’s fallacy that instills in you the terror that the losing streak will go on forever!

I have always advised to play short UNinterrupted gambling sessions: There will be significantly fewer long losing streaks. Play 200 roulette spins, for example. 5-length losing streaks: Just 1 (one) in 200 roulette spins. 5-length winning streaks: 3 times better. You’ll have also 4 exactly 4-length winning streaks and 7 exactly 3-length winning streaks. Those streaks will come to fruition, for sure. It ain’t what the Psychosamas say — it’s what mathematics calculates.

Your biggest problem is not the correctness of Streaks.EXE. Mathematics is not about how we treat each other. Unfortunately, it counts how the casinos treat the kokodrilos, winning gamblers in general. My biggest problem is the prohibition the casinos inflict on me. They see my notebook — they behave like warfare. If you are fortunate, you can find another kokodrilo, preferably a few kokodrilos, to play with. A gambling team offers a stronger presence in the casino. A team determines more easily the streaks and places the bets more accurately and quickly. It is absolutely LEGAL.

Some visitors to my website blame me for . . . offering ILLEGAL gambling systems! What??? My gambling systems, including the super roulette strategy, are TOTALLY LEGAL. The player does NOT interfere with the game in any manner whatsoever. In fact, the kokodrilo doesn’t even touch the roulette wheel or the Dealer . . .

“Dealer, dealer, kokodrealer ©,
You will need a legal healer!”


Best of luck!


Ion Saliu

Gambling Mathematics: Reaction and Legislation Regarding Online Gambling, Internet Casinos; Theory of Streaks.

[jimmy_liu_1985]

Dear Ion:

You guessed me right at the very beginning, yes i don't speak English at the very beginning of my life :P
What you said about "Gambler concerns more loss then win" is very useful, i look at myself and find that a shor of concecutive lossing condition is the very point i lose control of myself and place large bets like crazy, and lose all of course....

But the point i would like to ask was that: the frequency and length of 'L' streak. In another word, when there are a 9 times concecutive 'L' happens(like: WLLWWWWLLWWWWWWWWLLWWLLWLLWWWWWWWWWWWWLLW), should each concecutive 'L' streak be as short as 2 or 3 only? If so, there should be another step to follow, something like "if more than 3 'L' appeared 3 times one by one, then we can bet the next 'L' would be single or short(less then 3 consecutively)".

And the second thing is that, why i'm doing very long spins test is not because i concern about loss more than winning now, it's because if i plan to play a 5-step power-3 Martingale on two columns, once I lose, a big amout of money would gone, with a long period of money won with this system.

Thank you