Gitser:Are my thoughts correct?
No. Your thoughts ain’t correct. After a large number of trials (something like 50 times the number that represents p in 1/p), the real-life results get very close to what mathematics calculates.
The gambler’s fallacy is mostly advocated by those who have a vested interest: CASINOS. That might even infer “legitimacy” of cheating! You only hear that the gambler is fated to lose … to lose forever, that is!
In truth, you play roulette, flat-betting: You are fated to lose at a rate of around 5.26% of the time. If they say you are going to lose infinity of times — the reverse is also TRUE. But can you expect to WIN infinity of times? NOT! But you won’t hear those advocates claiming the reversed gambler’s fallacy: Win forever, gambler!
This gambler’s fallacy thing is the weapon they fire at me more intensely lately. They ain’t got anything else but that pathetic slogan. They aim at my Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). It is not only probability, p. There are also two more fundamental elements: The number of trials, N, and the degree of certainty, DC.
You can expect, knowingly, to lose 4-5 times in a row in some 100 trials (roulette spins, blackjack hands, etc.). Equivalently, you can expect to register streaks of 4-5 consecutive wins. That’s what makes the casinos mouth-foam in desperate anger. I did experience that in 2003, in Atlantic City. The surprise to me was the screamer. She was a simple roulette dealer, who did not benefit directly from a gambler’s loss! Actually, she would have benefited only from a friendly reaction to me: I would have tipped her! In that case, I didn’t give her a dime! But I tipped generously the waitress! BRRRRRRRRAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!
It’s all mathematical, axiomaticule! Nothing escapes mathematics, from the tiniest atoms in your blood to the most gigantic galaxies. That’s the reason why I loudly say: “God fears mathematics, while Einstein hates gambling.”
Best of luck! (You might as well get those 5 consecutive wins at any time — just be prepared to bet bigger!)
Ion Parpaluck Saliu