On the lookout for " lucky 12"

[Adam]

I had a very long post asking some questions to try to understand your problem better... I messed up and lost it....

So, only a short one.... in the reports what are the break6.6 and last.txt? I expected that one would be your wheel and the other the 10 draws you are checking against...

Sorry, Cristiano and all you guys as I was not specific taking too many things for granted.

No, it's not a wheel. Break6.6 is a file with all the combinations generated using numbers pinned down as in my post. Last 100.txt file is the file with deleted 10 draws which serve as future ones.

The thing is that absolutely by chance I picked two draws( first deleting 25 draws and making a report on 100 draws and now deleting 10 draws only and making a report for 98 draws) and using nearly the same number- picking method from Frequency Report I found jackpots in each of these cases.

Knowing that the odds of having 6 winners among 12 selected numbers in 6/49 game is 1: over 15,000 it seems really suprising.

Adam

[gingle]

Hello,

very interresting discussion and a nice strategy.

I would like to say my opinion regarding what i see the gamblers fallacy refers to: lets say you have an event like the lottery where you have n independent drawings and p the probability of drawing any specific number or 6 number combination or whatsoever at any drawing. The gamblers fallacy would be to think that that this probability will change or is self correcting. In other words, I have calculated that if i choose a certain number and play it for 6 draws my probability would be Z. Now I look behind and see that my number hasnt been drawn in the last 6 draws and assume that my chances are bigger now to win. In fact the chance that the specific number will be drawn in the very next drawing is still p, because Z refers to a probability calculated for the question: "what are my chances that if i choose number S and play it for n drawings i will hit it" so its a probability calculated apriori.

In your case, you assume that these choosen 12 number will have a higher probability of succes because of the higher frequency of succes at the 5/6 category in the last drawings. But the 12 number group will have the same probability of succes at the 5/6 category as any 12 number group. It will be by chance which 6 numbers will be extracted in the next drawings.
Random means that it doesnt follow any law by which you could calculate its behaviour.

[Adam]

gingle,

Thanks for your opinion. We know that on average we can expect that 3 numbers in the next winning combination will have a skip between 0 and 6. It's highly probably that those numbers will be between those 6 most frequent ones I pick for group 1. As to the remaining numbers they can come from all over the place. Nobody knows.
Anyway I skipped 3 games and played 1 4 of 6 wheel hitting 3 of 6. We'll see what happens next.

Adam

[gingle]

Hi Adam,


You say

We know that on average we can expect that 3 numbers in the next winning combination will have a skip between 0 and 6.

, ok but its nothing extraordinary as the total count of numbers with skips between 0 and 6 is somewhere at 24. Also You say

It's highly probably that those numbers will be between those 6 most frequent ones I pick for group 1.

. Unfortunately these numbers are not more probable to come out.

About a year ago I have followed the same logic to see if i have a gain when i choose numbers that are more frequent. I have analysed last 4 draws and then pick everytime 2 numbers with the top frequency and play them as singles for the next 4 drawings. The results for about 4900 drawings were that these 2 numbers had the same rate, percentage of succes as the probability calculated for "at least 1 of 2 from 49 when its drawn 6 from 49".

Later Edit: sorry i was a little bit in hurry, the probability i refer to is of course at least 1 succes in 4 trials when the probab at any trial is at least 1 of 2 from 2 when 6 from 49.


PS: i dont know why that :angry: emoticon appeared on the top of the post, I didnt put it and now i cant delete it so please ignore it hehehe

gingle

[Adam]

Hi Adam,




PS: i dont know why that :angry: emoticon appeared on the top of the post, I didnt put it and now i cant delete it so please ignore it hehehe

gingle

No problem, do not worry.

It seems to me that I posted something, but cannot see it. Perhaps I made some mistake.

I think the problem with your tested strategy was the range- too short and no pivot draw to count on.

I, by accident, happened to use the pivots that gave winners. That's why I've written abt. it. Also my range of analysis was not too short.

I think you need at least 49 or better 98 games to pin down the most frequent numbers in 6/49 game. It's similar to looking for best pairings.

Adam

[Adam]

gingle,

Let me demonstrate the importance of range of analysis and pivot draw with a following example.

Some time ago Ion suggested a strategy based on frequency of numbers. The idea is to look for the most frequent number in a selected range and take its best pairings, without that number and play them.

I decided to go along these lines:

1/ I delete 25 games from data 6 file and save them to another one. They will serve as future draws

2/ The range of analysis is 98 games( after delteing those 25 draws)

3/ I will play up to game 25, skipping 5 games at the start so I begin playing at draw 6. After max. 2 hits ( only 4 of 6 matters) I change the numbers to play.

4. The new pivot draw for analysis will be the line where the most recent hit is registered.

4/ As this is 6/49 I will take 12 best pairings of the most frequent number and wheel them in 4 of 6 wheel.

Thus I got my most frequent number and found its 112 best pairings. Then I broke them into all possible 924 combinations.

Below is a part of checking for winners report.

                LOTTO-6 Winning Number Checking - NO 3-hits
                   Files: BREAK6.6 ( 924 ) against > LAST100.TXT ( 25 )
                   Date: 09-23-2010

------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Line    Combinations                          6       5       4  
   no.       Checked                            Hits    Hits    Hits
------------------------------------------------------------------------
     22    2  4  7  9 31 42         in draw #                    11 
     22    2  4  7  9 31 42         in draw #                    13 
     43    2  4  7 24 31 42         in draw #                    11 
     58    2  4  7 31 36 42         in draw #                    11 
     68    2  4  7 31 38 42         in draw #                    11 
     77    2  4  7 18 31 42         in draw #                    11 
     79    2  4  7  8 31 42         in draw #                    11 
     80    2  4  7 29 31 42         in draw #                    11 

    649    4  9 29 31 38 42         in draw #                    13 
    655    4  8  9 18 31 42         in draw #                    13 
    656    4  9 18 29 31 42         in draw #                    13 
    657    4  8  9 29 31 42         in draw #                    13 
------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Total Hits:                             0       0       56 
------------------------------------------------------------------------

As you can see in line 11 and line 13 there are 4 of 6 hits.

Then as per my strategy I rearrange my numbers to play. So no I will delete only 10 lines from my data 6 file as the most recent hit was in line 11.

I repeat the process of finding the most frequent number and its best pairings, break it into combinations and check for winners.

Here is the report no.2 :

                   LOTTO-6 Winning Number Checking - NO 3-hits
                   Files: BREAK6.6 ( 924 ) against > LAST100.TXT ( 10 )
                   Date: 09-23-2010

------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Line    Combinations                          6       5       4  
   no.       Checked                            Hits    Hits    Hits
------------------------------------------------------------------------
     35    4  7 16 18 20 31         in draw #                    7 
     37    4  7 13 16 18 31         in draw #                    7 
     41    4  7 13 16 18 20         in draw #                    7 
     66    4  7 13 16 20 31         in draw #                    7 
    157    4  7 13 18 20 31         in draw #                    7 
    217    7 16 17 18 20 31         in draw #                    7 
    219    7 13 16 17 18 31         in draw #                    7 
    223    7 13 16 17 18 20         in draw #                    7 
    248    7 13 16 17 20 31         in draw #                    7 
    267    7 16 18 20 27 31         in draw #                    7 
    269    7 13 16 18 27 31         in draw #                    7 
    273    7 13 16 18 20 27         in draw #                    7 
    282    7 16 18 20 25 31         in draw #                    7 
    283    7 13 16 18 20 31         in draw #            7 
    284    7 16 18 20 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    285    7 11 16 18 20 31         in draw #                    7 
    286    7 13 16 18 25 31         in draw #                    7 
    289    7 13 16 18 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    290    7 11 13 16 18 31         in draw #                    7 
    292    7 13 16 18 20 25         in draw #                    7 
    295    7 13 16 18 20 28         in draw #                    7 
    296    7 11 13 16 18 20         in draw #                    7 
    303    7 13 16 20 27 31         in draw #                    7 
    322    7 13 16 20 25 31         in draw #                    7 
    325    7 13 16 20 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    326    7 11 13 16 20 31         in draw #                    7 
    353    7 13 17 18 20 31         in draw #                    7 
    408    7 13 18 20 27 31         in draw #                    7 
    427    7 13 18 20 25 31         in draw #                    7 
    430    7 13 18 20 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    431    7 11 13 18 20 31         in draw #                    7 
    469    4 16 17 18 20 31         in draw #                    7 
    471    4 13 16 17 18 31         in draw #                    7 
    475    4 13 16 17 18 20         in draw #                    7 
    500    4 13 16 17 20 31         in draw #                    7 
    519    4 16 18 20 27 31         in draw #                    7 
    521    4 13 16 18 27 31         in draw #                    7 
    525    4 13 16 18 20 27         in draw #                    7 
    534    4 16 18 20 25 31         in draw #                    7 
    535    4 13 16 18 20 31         in draw #            7 
    536    4 16 18 20 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    537    4 11 16 18 20 31         in draw #                    7 
    786   13 16 18 20 27 31         in draw #            7 
    787   16 18 20 27 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    788   11 16 18 20 27 31         in draw #                    7 
    789   13 16 18 25 27 31         in draw #                    7 
    792   13 16 18 27 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    793   11 13 16 18 27 31         in draw #                    7 
    795   13 16 18 20 25 27         in draw #                    7 
    798   13 16 18 20 27 28         in draw #                    7 
    799   11 13 16 18 20 27         in draw #                    7 
    805   13 16 18 20 25 31         in draw #            7 
    806   16 18 20 25 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    807   11 16 18 20 25 31         in draw #                    7 
    808   13 16 18 20 28 31         in draw #            7 
    809   11 13 16 18 20 31         in draw #            7 
    810   11 16 18 20 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    811   13 16 18 25 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    812   11 13 16 18 25 31         in draw #                    7 
    814   11 13 16 18 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    815   13 16 18 20 25 28         in draw #                    7 
    816   11 13 16 18 20 25         in draw #                    7 
    818   11 13 16 18 20 28         in draw #                    7 
    820   13 16 20 25 27 31         in draw #                    7 
    823   13 16 20 27 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    824   11 13 16 20 27 31         in draw #                    7 
    835   13 16 20 25 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    836   11 13 16 20 25 31         in draw #                    7 
    838   11 13 16 20 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    842   13 17 18 20 27 31         in draw #                    7 
    861   13 17 18 20 25 31         in draw #                    7 
    864   13 17 18 20 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    865   11 13 17 18 20 31         in draw #                    7 
    897   13 18 20 25 27 31         in draw #                    7 
    900   13 18 20 27 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    901   11 13 18 20 27 31         in draw #                    7 
    912   13 18 20 25 28 31         in draw #                    7 
    913   11 13 18 20 25 31         in draw #                    7 
    915   11 13 18 20 28 31         in draw #                    7 
------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Total Hits:                             0       7       105 
------------------------------------------------------------------------

So now it's even better we have 5 winning numbers in our pool of 12.

Of course, it does not mean that I have hit 5 of 6 as it's a 4 of 6 wheel, but the rub is to have them among those 12 selected numbers.

Adam

[gingle]

Adam hi,

thanks for the example. It is not important if you played a 4 out of 6 wheel, the important thing would be that this works. There are 792 combinations of 5 (C[12,5]= 792). Usually the odds for a 5/6 category are about 200-250.000.

So let me check this at the uk 49s where i have some drawings and i will write back.


gingle

[Ion Saliu]

The infamous Gambler's Fallacy was the first bullet shot at yours truly, as it were. I was promoting the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG) and potentially winning gambling systems derived from the FFG. My opponents, most of them vociferous and aggressive, posed me with this “mathematical” situation:

“You lose once; the probability that you will lose next time is the same as before. You lose twice; the probability that you will lose the third time in a row is the same as before.... and so on.... ad infinitum, if you will....” It's like a god of odds will always “create” losing outcomes for the player (always winning situations for the gambling house)!

I created a special page to the gambler's fallacy and the reversed gambler's fallacy:

Gambler's Fallacy, Reversed Gamblers Fallacy, Probability