My main interest is on pick-3 game, and I asked myself if it's possible to win this game consistently.
Usually Mr. Ion presents a profit figure of very short period, and I'm interested on long periods.
I'm not a math so maybe the table I'm presenting has nonsense.
I read on Mr. Ion's book that the past counts, so my calculation relies on continuity of the play. If this assumption is incorrect I'll appreciate that Mr. Ion explain the correct one.
I checked what would be the theoretical probability to win consistently, playing from 1000 to 50,000 combinations, and winning from 2 to 75 times. In case the winning prize is 900, the profit at 50,000 would be 17,500. I believe I used a very conservative profit figure.
As you can see in the table bellow:
· After playing 1000 combinations, 2 winning were achieved. This case presents 1 STD from the nominal value. The probability to win twice in 1000 combs is 0.18. The cumulative probability is 0.92; meaning 92% of the people playing 1000 combinations have less than 2 winnings.
· After playing 50,000 combinations, 75 winning were achieved. This case presents 3.54 STD from the nominal value. The probability to win 75 in 50,000 combs is 0.0002. The cumulative probability is 0.999 (converging to 1.0).
My layman way of understanding the results is that the probability of consistently pick-3 winning converge to 0.
Code:play win Profit theoretical std # std probability cumulative # of succes probability 1000 2 800 1 1 1.00 0.184032 0.919791 2000 3 700 2 1.41 0.71 0.180537 0.857214 3000 5 1,500 3 1.73 1.16 0.100836 0.916183 4000 6 1,400 4 2 1.00 0.104222 0.889430 5000 8 2,200 5 2.23 1.35 0.065271 0.932004 6000 9 2,100 6 2.45 1.22 0.068838 0.916179 7000 11 2,900 7 2.64 1.52 0.045155 0.946741 8000 12 2,800 8 2.83 1.41 0.048115 0.936299 9000 14 3,600 9 3 1.67 0.032365 0.958615 10000 15 3,500 10 3.16 1.58 0.034701 0.951346 20000 30 7,000 20 4.47 2.24 0.008329 0.986567 30000 45 10,500 30 5.47 2.74 0.002304 0.996060 40000 60 14,000 40 6.32 3.16 0.000676 0.998806 50000 75 17,500 50 7.07 3.54 0.000205 0.999631
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