One BIG lie after another!!!

[BrianPA]

I would like to share some information I have come accross in regards to lie files. If you are unaware what a lie file is, WELL...................Its one of the greatest parts of Ions software. Lie files can drastically reduce the number of combos in your final output file.


Now let me share one Lie idea with you.

Those who know my posts, might remember how fascinated I was with the pair5.rep. I wasn't sure how to use it, I just knew that there was something in there that was huge. Here is a small sample of the report that I'm talking about.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Line      Num           Num           Num           Num           Num      Lowest Highest
no.        1             2             3             4             5        Pair   Pair
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1  11 20 36 41   14 19 26 36    7 28 34 36   10 11 19 40    5  9 14 38     5     41
2   3 25 33 35    9 17 35 40    5  8 18 26   12 27 38 39    2  5  9 36     2     40
3   3  6 35 42   15 19 23 34    2  9 15 29   26 28 30 32    1  2 33 40     1     42
4   2 14 28 36    5 11 15 28   14 25 29 36    2  7 20 24    1  5 29 34     1     36

I will assume that everyone knows how to read the report and what it means.


Now I will show you a few selected lines of the same report.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Line      Num           Num           Num           Num           Num      Lowest Highest
no.        1             2             3             4             5        Pair   Pair
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1  11 20 36 41   14 19 26 36    7 28 34 36   10 11 19 40    5  9 14 38     5     41


14   6 25 41 42    4 30 35 41    1 25 32 40    2 24 32 41    5 35 39 41     1     42


16  28 35 41 42    5 12 27 35   17 21 35 40    1  4 19 35    1  4 23 35     1     42


26   5  7  9 40    2 29 37 40   15 18 36 37   29 36 37 38    3 15 27 35     2     40

Lets take one line at a time, and I will explain how to make a devestating lie file from the information.


LINE #1:
As you can see, the highest pair rankings from each winning number is in RED. This is what we will be concentrating on for this example.

The lowest pair ranking in RED is 36.
So what does this mean??
It means we can make a top5 file with the top 35 pairs of every number, and using make/break in super utilities, break that file down using 1 number + 4pairs, for a very devestating lie file!!!

You may think that 35 top pairs is a good enough lie file. Well hold on there!!!!!!!!!!!

Look at line #14

You will see that the lowest "High Ranking" is 40. So now you can use a top5 file with 39 pairs for a lie file. WOW!!!!!! THAT is HUGE!!!!!


Please NOTE: The numbers in the report do not reflect actual lottery numbers. They only reflect the ranking of a numbers pairing frequency in relation to a main number. I hope I explained that well enough. If not, maybe Ion can step in here and give a more precise explination. Also, when using the above method for lie files, you must use filter ID=5 (For 5 of 5).

Check your reports and have fun with it!!!!!!!!!!

Regards,
BrianPA

PS. Ion, what is the best way to get in contact with you. I would rather not post an idea that I would like to present to you. Dont worry, its nothing that requires alot of effort.........I think.

[Ion Saliu]

Brian:

That’s how the LIE feature works. Looks like you understand it as well as I do. I came up with the idea in the 1990’s for pick-3 only. The computers of that time couldn’t handle well the feature for lotto.

I had forgotten about the LIE lottery strategy. Then you asked a question (Removing Combinations) on exactly the LIE feature. You wanted only the largest filter enabled (as it is now ID5 for lotto-5).

I did see success with ID4 also. I get the FOUR filter in GridPair5.exe over 500 in many drawings. I set the MAX_FOUR = 200 for example. That is a LIE on many occasions. Of course, the ID5 will work most of the time. But, a few times, I saw also the ID4 working!

You can email me — you remember my Yahoo address. Or you can PM me here. One thing is, I had a few problems with my computer (AGAIN!!!) Then, yesterday, I went out soon after I took a shower. I sweat and it was really windy outside. I had frills all day yesterday and I still feel that cold. I am much better today. We can communicate tomorrow, for example. Or, maybe, next year, soon after the holidays.

Best of luck to you and all! Happy New Year 2012!

Ion Saliu

By the way –
My FTP account is still down as we speak … I can’t upload anything now, as it happened in November 2010. Looks like the end of a year causes the most problems to my Web site … in the spirit of the holidays, I guess …

[BrianPA]

Ion,

I will be sending you an email tonight. I will also keep connected to skype this evening. If I'm not at my computer, I will have my status as "away" in skype. Hope to catch you on skype this evening, as it would be an honor to talk to you.

THANKS my friend!!
BrianPA

[BrianPA]

Using ID=4, I got a few combinations.

Using ID=4 could not produce the winning combination with the example I gave. Even if you use the third ranking. The idea can only be used with ID=5.

But using ID=5 file generated is too high.
How can we reduce the number of combinations?

You will have to use the other filters within Ion's software. If you are looking to use just one concept (or filter) to produce an adequate number of combos to play per night, WELL...........................it aint gonna happen! Ion can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe there is just one filter setting or concept that will produce an allowable amount to play. You should be looking at different aspects of Ions software and piece them together. Thats just my 2 cents.

PS
When I select the option Make/Break/Position, the program Util532.exe, after generating the combinations, does not stop.

Maybe your computer is not capable of handling such a demand of processing involved. Although, it does take quite awhile. Try just giving it more time to do its steps.


HTH
BrianPA

[BrianPA]

I'm a little amazed at how quiet this post has been. I was hoping to see more input on different lie strategies or ideas. Now, I know there are some bright people that frequent this board on a regular basis. I hate to think that I'm the only one getting excited about the LIE feature in Ions software.

There are alot of possibilities with the lie files, some have a huge impact on the odds, and some don't. I have a grand slam of a lie file idea, but i have a few more days of research to do on the idea. I have yet to propose it to Ion, because it would require a little work on his part. My intentions were to email him on the idea, but, I will start a new post and present it here for all to see. Hope you all don't think I'm nuts!!!!!!!!! Ha HA!!!

Come on guys.........Get your thoughts on the board and lets see what we come up with!


BrianPA

[David_3]

Hi Brian,

I would like to thank you about the fact that you're sharing with us your thoughts; I think you are a very intelligent person.

I tried to check your observation and in the following lines I'll present my findings.

I admit that I failed to understand PAIR3.REP report, generated by Mr. Ion SW. So I used my own report.

Those were the steps I followed through.

Step 1:

Define a parpeluck in which I count all the pairs: 20, 50, 100 and 200 drawings.

Step 2:

Define what a pair is: (in pick-3 the order matters- 752 is not like 257).

For example: draw 572 –
pair1: 57, pair2: 52, pair3: 72.

I think Mr. Ion defines the pairs slight different, but I didn't find differences in the results with other pair definition.

Step 3:

Calculate for each digit (i.e. 0, 1, 2…, and 9) the frequency of its pairs within the parpeluck defined.

For example (digit 0 and all its 10 pairs):
00 – 2, 01 – 1, 02 – 0, 03 – 5, 04 – 2,
05 – 1, 06 – 7, 07 – 0, 08 – 4, 09 – 2.

The number in the right side means how many times this pair comes out within the parpeluck defined (00 – 2, means pair 00 comes out 2 times).

Step 4:

Sort for each digit (0, 1, 2 …, and 9) its pairs by the most frequent to the less one.

For Step 3 example we got:
06, 03, 08, 00, 04, 09, 01, 05, 02, 07.

Step 5:

For each draw present its pair ranking in a descending order, #1 means high frequency, #10 low frequency/appearance; for example:

583 2 4 6

The numbers 2, 4, and 6 present the frequency ranking (how many times it comes out) of each pair out of three. #2 means the pair has high ranking, and #6 is a low ranking pair.

Step 6:

Generating a lie file with combinations coming from a defined ranking and above, for example:

Ranking #6 – for each digit (0, 1, 2 …, and 9) generate combinations with all pairs coming from ranking #6, #7, #8 and #9.

Step 7:

Find if all played combinations (1000 – lie combinations) hits the next draw (unseen draw).

Step 8:

I run step 1 through step 7 on 3,000 real pick-3 draw and those were the results:

Ranking	Total combinations On 3000 drawings	wins	parpeluck
6	782,000	805	20
6	742,000	782	50
6	730,000	709	200
7	1,201,000	1,221	20
7	1,124,000	1,080	200
5	472,000	461	20
5	449,000	482	50

Conclusion:

As you can see the number of wins fails in the expected binomial experiments, meaning that this approach is exactly as chosen to eliminate random numbers.
If you don't agree with my findings or you want me to verify some different pairing definition, please don't hesitate to post it.

BR,
David

[BrianPA]

HUH????????

I haven't a clue what you are talking about!!! Ions Software comes with some great visual tutorials. Do some reading on his website(not just the boards). I'm sorry for not knowing what you are talking about, but it doesn't seem to be the same subject that I brought up. Pair3.rep (if the format is the same as Pair5.rep) should be very easy to understand. I can't for the life of me figure out why you would use your own report.


Maybe Ion can understand what you are trying to do. Sorry I couldn't help, if that is what you are asking for.

Conclusion:

As you can see the number of wins fails in the expected binomial experiments, meaning that this approach is exactly as chosen to eliminate random numbers.
If you don't agree with my findings or you want me to verify some different pairing definition, please don't hesitate to post it.

WHAT?????????? Guess I'm not as smart as what you think I am.
ION..........Help!!



Good Skills
BrianPA

[David_3]

Hi Brian,

Probably my bad English caused your misunderstanding, I appologies.


In my post I tried to say, that there is only one golden rule which a good strategy or aprroach should follow - how good is this strategy/approach comparing to a random play.
This means that when one find a strategy or approach (like lie approach), one must answer the question - for how many STD (standard deviation) my strategy/approach beats a random play. As Mr. Ion says in one of his post, 3 STD is expected to be very good one.

In your post you suggested a lie approach without saying how good it beats a random play. I want to give you two examples from pick-3 game, which I'm familiar with.
Lie file #1 eliminates 800 combinations (out of 1000 combs in pick-3 game), which sounds fantastic. But when comparing the performance of this lie file with random combinations elimination, this shows up no statistical benefit, meaning +/- one STD.
Lie file #2 eliminates 200 combinations (out of 1000 combs in pick-3 game), but presents 3 STD improvement related to random play. So lie file #2 is a real lie approach when lie file #1 doesn't.


In my post I checked step by step using pairing strategy as lie file, in order to eliminate combinations (as you suggested in your post).
So, I have found that this pairing lie file approach don't have any statistical benefit comparing to random play, meaning this approach doesn't improve winning odds comparing to random combination elimination. Don't confuse, I'm not saying that lie approach is not a good thing, I'm saying that pairing lie approach - looks as a fause lie approach (at least in my observation).

Right, I checked on pick-3 game on my country, which is not your case; but I have the feeling that the same figures would be found in your case. I tested this lie approach on 10,000 simulated SIM-3 file and I got the same results (no statistical improvement).


I hope that my point is now clear.


BR,
David

[Ion Saliu]

Every lottery strategy has SKIPS. NO lottery strategy can hit every drawing. I have shown, however, that there are situations when a lottery strategy makes a profit over a number of drawings, without hitting every draw.

There are cases with the pick-3 pair strategies that make a profit even if playing every draw. I saw that more often than not. The PIVOT is a very important parameter (the lottery drawing when to generate the pairs and start the strategy). Of course, the PARPALUCK is also very important.

The LIE feature should be used not only with one group of combinations. You can make LIE candidates odd/even, low/high, sums, frequency groups, pairs, etc.

Unfortunately, I haven’t understood your post very clearly, especially the reports. I am working now on clarifying my lottery strategies. I have written materials spread all over the place, like the old forum and this one. I’ll try to put as much as I know and remember in one eBook. I’ll make it available only to registered members. I want also to try licensing schemes so that unregistered users won’t have access to special features and software that I distribute.

Best of luck!

Ion Saliu