Casino War Strategy and Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG)

• Casino War or Casino Wars is a very easy and simple casino game — possibly the easiest to play. At first sight, it looks like a perfect coin toss, an ideally idyllic 50-50 game. But there are the tie situations.

• The player places a bet; the dealer and player each receive one card.
• If the player's card is higher than the dealer's card, the player wins even money; if the dealer's card is higher than the player's card, the player loses the wager.
• If there is a tie, the player can either surrender for half the wager or can declare "war".
  • The WAR consists of the player placing an additional unit wager. The dealer burns three cards, deals another face-up card to the player and one face-up card to himself.
    • If the player's card is of higher or equal rank to the dealer's card, the player wins one unit on the war bet and pushes the original bet, that is, the player wins one unit.
    • If the dealer's card is ranked higher than the player's card, the player loses both the original and the war bet.

We calculate the odds of a tie through the Birthday Paradox. We run my probability and combinatorial software — BirthdayParadox or Collisions — for 13 elements, 2 at a time (the 52-card deck has 13 elements, from 2 to Ace).

At first analysis, I thought it was a really bad game. The tie probability is 7.7%, very much like the push in blackjack. The same is true about some BJ games that offer the pair bet. The casino should pay something like 13 to 1 — or at least 12 to 1. They pay far less than that. On the other hand, a push in blackjack means nobody loses; the player gets his/her money back.

This Casino War game, however, gives the player a slight overall advantage — if the player “always goes to war” (or “never surrenders”).

I have been asked many times if my notorious gambling strategies can be applied to Casino Wars. Namely, can strategies or systems be derived from the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). You bet!

In fact, FFG is the best instrument to use for Casino War. A strategy for p = 1/2 can be applied as in my Super Roulette Strategy. Keep track of the W and L streaks as for red/black, high/low (at roulette), Player/Banker (at baccarat). I believe blackjack is worse than the two aforementioned casino games and FFG should be applied less aggressively in blackjack.

Since casinos are largely hostile to gamblers keeping records on paper (they all curse me now because of that!) the best tactic out there is to apply my Blackjack Mental System. Read:

• Blackjack Mental System, Martingale Progressions based on Win Loss Streaks.
• Blackjack Mathematics Probability Odds Basic Strategy Tables Charts
• Super Roulette Strategies.

• Casino War Strategies, Systems, Sic Bo, Gambling Formula.

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