Hi all and axiomatic Ion:

I used to like one simple game in land-based casino, ** Casino War**.
Player and dealer gets one card each, the higher card wins. A is the highest
card. If the first card ties, player can surrender (get half chips back), or

Can we play it as

Cheers, scintillatingly axiomatic kokodrilos!

Orestes

Kokodrilo:

You really are a* big-time gambler* (hence the royalty name of *kokodrilo*).
I hadn't heard of that *casino war* game before. You probably gamble in
the Far East.

First, we calculate the odds of a tie through the *Birthday Paradox *(running
BirthdayParadox.exe or Collisions.EXE
for 13 elements, 2 at a time).

At first analysis, I thought it was a really bad game. The *tie *probability
is 7.7%, very much like the *push *in blackjack. The same is true about
some BJ games that offer the *pair bet*. The casino should pay something
like 13 to 1 — or at least 12 to 1. They pay far less than that. On the other
hand, a *push in blackjack means nobody loses; the Player gets his/her money
back*.

This *Casino War *game might be the only case where* card counting is
valid*. A lot depends how the game is played. Is the game played heads-up:
Dealer versus one player only? Is the deck of cards reshuffled after every
decision (loss or win for the Player)? Is the tie for low cards (2 to 7) or for
high cards (9 to Ace)? I make 8 the neutral card. Then, the Player can make a better
educated decision.

Still, the

Read a special “thread” right here, in this *sui
generis* forum:

·
*Casino War Strategy, Casino Wars
Strategies from Fundamental Formula of Gambling.*

I haven't heard *Casino Wars* being offered by the
U.S. casinos, specifically Atlantic City. I might write some software, some day.
. . Right now, I am a *spam killer*. As many visitors noticed, my forums
are subject to intense, hateful spamming sometimes.

Best of luck, axiomatic kokodrilos!

Ion Saliu

** **

**How about the casino game Sic
Bo? Any strategies can be generated by FFG?**

Greetings Ion,

** Borgata Casino** starts to offer 2 new games:

1)
** Casino War** [new to Atlantic City casinos], and

2)
** Sic Bo** [new to Borgata].

Card counting in

The tie hands occur more frequently as the table is filled with 6 players; thus, more cards will be burnt, which adversely affect counting cards. For the time being, a Borgata's supervisor watches the game like a hawk. As a result, I didn't waste time to beat the new game.

However, the new game of

Here's a picture of Sic Bo:

*Sic Bo*
offers many betting options. Surprisingly, the house gets no edge on the
"Single Dice Bet". (a bet of one, two, three, four, five, or six.
Look at the bottom part of the picture above).

All the other bets give the house some big edges:

From the smallest edge of

(1) 3% on the bet of Big (dice score of 18 or more) or Small (dice score of 10
or less)…

to the largest edge of

(2) 47% on the bet of Three Dice Total (i.e., 3 dice score of 5 or 16).

Orestes

Axiomaticule,

Hmm... Sic Bo offers the zero house edge to a
player when the player plays the *Single Dice Bet*.

*Single Dice Bet* is this: the specific number 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 will
appear on one, two, or all three dice.

For example, the hot number 5 comes out more frequently than the other numbers.
I would bet on number 5. The odd of 5 comes out is 50/50 chance; i.e., the odd
of 5 to come out is 1/6 on each die. There are 3 dice, thus, the math goes like
this: 0.5=1/6+1/6+1/6.

Since there's no house edge on the Single Dice Bet (**SDB**), I think the
double up system works the best on this game of Sic Bo. Borgata allows $1 bet
on each **SDB**. The maximum bet is $3,000 on **SDB**. As long as the hot
number 5 comes up within 12 bets, I will be a sure winner. See the excel spread
sheet below:

1 $1

2 $2

3 $4

4 $8

5 $16

6 $32

7 $64

8 $128

9 $256

10 $512

11 $1,024

12 $2,048

13 $4,096

Here is the money maker. Once a while, a triple hot 5s will come up on all the
3 dice. That means I will get paid triple of my double up bet! For example, say
this is the round #8. The triple 5s pop up. I will get paid $384 ($128 * 3). I
will get a net profit of $127 ($384 winning - $127 previous losses).

By the way, to circumvent the $3,000 bet restriction per player, I can call
(with a cellphone) extra partners for help when "emergency" comes up.
For example, more partners can keep me in the game from round #12 to round #20ish.
See info below.

1 $1

2 $2

3 $4

4 $8

5 $16

6 $32

7 $64

8 $128

9 $256

10 $512

11 $1,024

12 $2,048

13 $4,096

14 $8,192

15 $16,384

16 $32,768 .

17 $65,536

18 $131,072

19 $262,144

20 $524,288

The critical question is: How many times a hot number (i.e., 5) will NOT pop up
in Sic Bo? 10? 15? 20?

Ion, please run some *sims* to find out an answer for me.

Best regards,

Orestes

Probability not to catch any specific number is
5/6*5/6*5/6 = 125/216 ~ 0.5787 = 57.87%. Suddenly there are over 50% chances
for the house to win...

PS: the casino game with the lowest house edge is craps — buy bets (buy 4 or
10, buy 6 or 8, etc.) — you have the Internet — just look it up.

Gingle

Gingle, axiomaticule, thanks for your answer on
the *"probability NOT to catch any specific number"*. So... on
the other hand, the probability to catch a specific number (say #5) is 42.13% [100%-57.87%].
Ahh... I made a mistake on my logic. The math and commonsense don't go hand in
hand. The commonsense formula for catching a specific number (i.e., #5) is
this: 1/6 + 1/6 +1/6 = 3/6 = 50%, but the real math shows 42.13%, not 50%.
Amazing!

Now the next math question: what if I play a million hands of Sic Bo, how many
rounds in the row I will lose my bet on a specific number (say #5)? Will I,
just like the roulette bet on Red or Black, lose 18 in the row before I hit the
#5?

By the way, why not Craps or Roulette? I prefer to play the double up system on
Sic Bo because Sic Bo does pay 3 to 1 on a specific number (i.e., triple 5s may
come out after a long drought). Just think of this: what if I double up for 12
times consecutively with the bet of $2,048, and the triple 5s pop up? Something
to think about, right?

Orestes

Hello Orestes,

Unfortunately, the math for the probability to catch a specific number is not
that simple subtraction. Here are chances for what can occur:

Number on one die: probability = 0.347 (34.7%)

Number on two dice: probability = 0.069 (6.9%)

Number on three dice: probability = 0.005 (0.5%)

Dealer wins: Probability = 0.5787 (57.9%).

To answer your second question, if you play a million* sic bo* hands at
the specific number bet (probability to lose 57.87%), you have
0.999999999799845 (that is over 99.99%) chance to lose 18 or more in a row at
least once.

gingle

Gingle, what an eye opener! Based on your math,
the game of Sic Bo is for suckers. Hmm... that's why Borgata gave me a free
room while I was testing out Sic Bo. Gingle, thankyou very much. I'll not waste
any more time on Sic Bo.

Here's another question for you. Will the double up system work profitably on
the game of EZ-Baccarat?

I ask this question because I've seen a professional gambler (*CGG*) doing
it for about 1.5 years.

CGG bets on banker only because there's no commission on the game of *EZ
Baccarat*. Note: the gambler does pay a hidden commission indirectly… a
casino will not pay on a Banker's winning hand of 3-card-7. For example, say
you bet $1,000 on banker. The banker beats player when the banker's hand is 007
against the player's 006. The dealer treats this outcome as a "push"
and will not pay the winner, thus, the $1,000 is a hidden commission for the
house.

CGG starts from $15 and doubles up all the way to $10,000. A floorperson said
that CGG made averagely about $300 a day, and the casino still awaits CGG to
hit a long drought to wipe him out of his huge bankroll. The casino is so
certain that CGG will get wiped out... so much so that casino plays dumb even
though CGG uses partners to circumvent the $10,000 bet limit.

Orestes

Hello,

I do not know anything about the *EZ baccarat* game (rules etc.), but as
long as there is a house edge, you will require more steps in order to double
up your money.

Now in the given example of *CGG,* I can tell you that his chances not to
go totally bankrupt have increased. However i would bet on the casino, don't
you have a hunch that maybe they're right waiting for his losing streak?

PS: now that you waste no more time at *Sic Bo*, I hope no casino will
come after me :-))

Gingle

Later Edit:

I looked a little bit at this game. Looks like it is a game with very small
house margin.

If I'm correct, the bets should have the following probabilities:

**Banker** wins = 0.458 (45.8%)

**Player** wins = 0.446 (44.6%)

**Tie **= 0.095 (9.5%)

That gives a total house margin of 1.1%, which is little compared to roulette
or other games.

Still, there is no skill involved in playing the game.

I hope I could help you.

Last edited by gingle; 08-14-2011 at 07:27 PM.

Gingle, thanks again. OK I'm sold. No Sic Bo nor
EZ-Baccarat for me. You just rescue me from the jaws of casinos. Hey you should
run some math seminars in *casinolands* to save some souls such as CGG's.

Oh, casinos will not come after you, and you're protected under the Good
Samaritan Law. However, if casinos ever find out who you're, they'll just
blacklist you and keep you *comp-less*. So long!

Orestes

*Theory
of Streaks***:
The Only Winning Gambling Strategy Founded on Mathematics**

Gingle: *“PS: now that you waste no more time at Sic
Bo, I hope no casino will come after me :-)) ”*

Gitser:

You mean, you will come after . . . yourself?! You are the casino, crocodilule!
My antennae tell me that in English and . . . Romaneste! BRRRRRRRRAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!
I figured you out myself rather quickly, axiomaticule.

As of Orestes, he is also a casino guy. His latest IP just confirmed very
closely the IP of another casino guy that I had run-ins with (both by email and
in my previous BBNow forums).

But I offered you both the courtesy of having been treated as *kokodrilos*—
*big-time gamblers*.

Free advertising, especially for entities such as *Lizard of Odds*, is not
accepted here. All casino guys always refer to their favorite mole: “the wizard
of odds”. He has been on casino payroll for decades! Would he ever offer real
gambling systems?! NOT! I put the “wizard-of-odds” issue to rest in the early
2000s. Let him keep trying to get those *200 heads in a row *. . .

*Wizard of Odds: Gambling Challenge in Casinos and
Testing for Exorbitant Fees*

** The Wizard of Odds: Phony Gambling Author Paid by
the Casinos**.

On one hand, Lizard's Web site appears on the Internet as:

“Wizard of Odds: The last word on gambling strategy. The Wizard of Odds offers the

On the other hand, Grand Lizard has always stressed his take on the

If that is not schizophrenia, I don't know what is!

The real issue here is the infamous

Gitser is mathematically correct. If he would play 1,000,000 (one million) Sic Bo hands,

But both guys avoid the very important issue of the

Gitser and Oritser also refer to a mysterious casino winner, identified as

Mathematically, the

There is also that issue the casinos and their lizards of odds bluntly throw in the face of kokodrilos and all gamblers. It's about

One cannot

And that's the hottest issue that

That's the real issue here:

As of our common friend

CGG (or any gambler, for that matter) doesn't have to apply a dumb martingale. CGG should continue to record all his streaks and bet according to mathematics. There are only two types of parameters: winning streaks and non-winning streaks. It is always gonna be

If an event (like a gambling streak) has a degree of certainty equal to 90% to take place within a number of trials, that event will show a statistical appearance in parity with 90%. The casino lizards will always tell you that the favorable event will never occur. Only the unfavorable opposite will take place — although it has only a 10% degree of certainty!

Best of luck to all kokodrilos and to all true gamblers! You see, the Gitsers and Oritsers of the world will never accept my challenge and gamble at the same casino table where I gamble! The casinos will not allow them to …

Ion Saliu

Detective At-Large

Greetings Ion, I've forgiven you and many other APs who have accused me of being a casino spy! Most accusing APs have thought that I know too much... like a casino insider. For example, I was able to get my hand on a casino floorperson's handbook. I scanned some juicy pages and shared with some APs. Bang — that's my mortal sin — being a nice guy! I was banned from the chatroom and accused of being a casino spy. That's OK. We're all human & sinners. I love your site, and I've still learned something here. By the way, I'm in AC right now. I'll look for you, and I'll treat you for a comped-dinner.

Best regards, Carl's friend for over 3 decades.

Orestes

*Sic Bo***: Correct House Advantage for One-Number
Bet**

Orestes:

I apologize if I wrongfully assigned you an official casino status. Of course,
there is no absolute certainty, as ** FFG** proves. But I always rely
on high degrees of certainty. I rely on patterns. In most cases, I've been
right. Indeed, other people, who are NOT associated with me, come to the same
conclusion when it comes to so-called casino moles or agents.

One strong indication is the infamous

Oritser, you start with a good feeling regarding the

The Player bets on one number. Three dice are cast. If Player's number shows on any one of the 3 dice, Player wins

We use that great piece of mathematical software known the world over as

L = AT LEAST M successes in N trials.

If we assume that we bet 1 dollar on number 6 and number 6 comes out at least once on three dice, then Gitser's calculations were correct. In fact, most calculations for this Sic Bo bet are the same. We run the function

But here is the subtlety. The casino pays

We apply again the function

Throwing N dice represent the numerical set case known as

That percentage, 7.4, applied to 216 leads to around 16 lines that are paid extra. And one more extra situation: When the triple shows up (6-6-6), the payout is 3 to 1. Thus we have now 17 cases that are paid extra. If those lines were NOT paid extra, the probability to win will always be the same: 42.2%. Therefore, the casino would have a 7.8% house edge.

The casino, however, is very generous in this game! They add 17 winning cases to Player! The gambler should expect around 216 * .422 = 91 winning situations. The 17 extras will lead to 108 winning situations.

You

The calculations resemble blackjack a lot. The winning probability is that percentage. But, then, you add the extras: double-down situations, splitting pairs, blackjacks (naturals). The BJ Dealer may not double down, or split pairs, or get paid

Have I ever played Sic Bo? NOT! I dislike cumbersome games. Sic Bo is one of them. Craps is another one. You have to wait for all kinds of conditions to take place. Besides, you stand up at craps — keeping records is very hard. I don't like baccarat at all. Mini baccarat seems to be more attractive and it is faster. But the game is too cold. I hate when many players sit at the table and watch one another. They place bets, then they takes back their bets, then place their bets again . . . I hate them mini-baccarat tables!

Ion Saliu

· *Formula
Software for Statistics, Mathematics, Probability, Gambling*

· *Generate
Permutations, Combinations, Arrangements, Exponents**.*

Orestes: *“Best regards, Carl's friend for over
3 decades.”*

I will appreciate a clarification. The name Carl doesn't
ring a bell. I vaguely remember a Carl with whom I worked as a temp some 12
years ago. I didn't know he was interested in gambling. Or, are you referring
to … Carl Sagan? I did write about him recently — mostly I am very appreciative
of his ideas and work.

Thanks for inviting me to Atlantic City. I'm still tied to home somehow, at
least for a while. I want also to try the Pennsylvania casinos first. It's my
home state, so I have better chances. I mean legal chances, in case the PA
casinos would treat me as those in AC.

Again, I would not give up my little notebook and keeping record of blackjack hands,
or roulette spins … or Sic Bo one-number bets! Especially given my bankroll, I
must play the best way possible. Mathematics is my only chance …

Best of luck to you in Atlantic City!

Ion Saliu

How about a 4-dice Sic Bo with a similar one-number bet?

You bet on one die face; e.g. *6*. If *6* appears on one die, you get
paid 1 to 1; if 6 appears on two dice, you get paid 2 to 1; if 6 appears on
three dice, you get paid 3 to 1; if 6 appears on all four dice, you get paid 4
to 1.

Total elements of 4 dice: 6 ^ 4 = 1296.

We run the function *L: AT LEAST 1 success in 4 trials *(dice faces).
Result: 38.6%.

*AT LEAST 2 successes in 4 trials *(dice faces). Result: 11.6%.

*AT LEAST 3 successes in 4 trials *(dice faces). Result: 1.5%.

*EXACTLY 4 on 4* (6-6-6-6) = 1 situation that pays 3 extra units.

Winning situations without bonuses: 1296 * .386 ~ 500

2-in-4 situation: 1296 * .116 ~ 150 extra winning cases

3-in-4 situation: 1296 * .015 ~ 19 * 2 ~ 38 extra winning cases

4-in-4 situation: 3 extra winning cases.

Total winning cases: 500 + 150 + 38 + 3 = 691.

Winning chance in rapport to house edge: ** -53.3%**.

Therefore, the

Great idea, you had, Orestes! We discovered new gambling mathematics rules! We both deserve … big comps! Would I be afraid of … poisoning? You betcha! I am listening right now to Black Sabbath's

Parpaluck

Greetings Ion, Casino Guy, me? Hell no! Carl will
vouch for me as a legit player. Here are the keywords: New York City Pistol
License. Ask him about me---the crazy gambler with a New York City Pistol
License. Carl mistook me a NYPD cop, lol! He knows whom I'm---Hurry, hurry,
hurry. He's back to AC from Florida for this Summer. Best regards, Orestes.

Orestes

You wanna shoot me now, Carl? After all I've done for
you? I gave you the best gambling odds ever: 50-50, with NO casino edge! Or,
that's the whole point! I destroyed a casino game — the casinos got really mad
at me beginning this day!!!

Serious, who's that mysterious Carl? You can email me some details. I googled
on those keywords — lots of links to the laws of NYC for getting firearm legal
permission. Apparently, the license for a gun in New York City costs an arm and
a leg! And you say you are gambler who is licensed to bear firearms. I assume
you enter a casino with a gun in your hand … like Joe.

But, if you talk about

$262,144 and $524,288 bets

you must be some big … shot on Wall Street!

I wanna know more about that Carl, who, you say, knows me and I know him.
Sounds like *Carlos The Jackal*, the Venezuelan terrorist who executed
scores of assassination plots, abductions, and bombings.

I will post here a streak rundown for one number (57.8% and 42.2%) in Sic Bo,
similar to the table on the blackjack page:

Enjoy your comps and the best of luck to you at Sic Bo!

Ion “Don't-Call-Me-Carl(os)” Saliu

PS

I had to delete your quotations because of duplicate content — the search
engines don't like it. I got enough headaches with spamming . . .

IS

Orestes:

I can see where you are: Atlantic City *Free Public Library*. You are
afraid to use your laptop from your free room at Borgata, right? Honestly, I
don't think I'd ever accept a free-room offer by the casinos — regardless of
national location or jurisdiction.

I can tell you, your nickname is fearsome alright. That inference to Greek
tragedies, with brother Orestes and sister Electra killing their mother,
Clytemnestra, as revenge for her killing their father, Agamemnon … Geez!!!

Best of luck, Oritser!

Ion Saliu,

Playwright At-Large

Strange thing: The last 7 posts here were marked as
Moderated. It happened overnight, automatically. The anti-spam function didn't
even ask me, the administrator! I don't like that!

As a result, unregistered members were unable to read those messages,
especially the one with the latest calculations regarding the Sic Bo NO-edge
situation.

Parpaluck,

Administrator At-Large

**IMPORTANT
EDIT: BEER IS NOT GOOD FOR A WINE/COGNAC MAN!**

I did make a mistake in my calculations regarding the ** Sic Bo**
game, specifically the

Indeed, the odds of NOT-WINNING (losing) are calculated as EXACTLY 0 successes in 3 trials for probability p = 1/6; result: 57.87%. No arguing here. That translates to 216 * 0.5787 = 125 situations. THAT'S A GIVEN. Nobody can change that negative result for the Player: 125 losing situations out of 216.

The winning situations for the player are calculated as at least 1 success in 3 trials for probability p = 1/6; result: 42.13%. That translates to 216 * 0.4213 = 91 situations.

IF the casino would ALWAYS pay 1 to 1, the house edge would be: (125 – 91) / 216 = 34 / 216 = 15.74%.

But the casino tries to sweeten the deal for this particular bet. They do add 17 situations to the original 91 winning situations for the player. Now, the house odds calculations changed to:

(125 – 108) / 216 = 17 / 216 = 7.87%.

This is DEFINITELY the correct house edge at the casino game of Sic Bo, the Single Dice Bet (SDB).

IF the casinos would pay 12 to 1 for the triple (as I saw on some Sic Bo layouts), the edge would be even better for the player: (125 – 117) / 216 = 3.7%. But it would not be 0% even then. Still,

Still,

·
*Blackjack
Dealer Bust: New Software to Calculate Odds, House Edge*

·
*Blackjack
Odds Analyzed by Binomial Standard Deviation*

That's what science is all about. The truth is ** above
**anybody and anything. Shame has no place in searching for TRUTH.

Curious how Cyber World functions! As wrong mathematically as my latest writings here were, my website BENEFITTED! I noticed a serious increase in traffic and in advertising earnings! But, no, thanks! I wouldn't make mistakes intentionally in order to get an increased Web traffic!

Indeed, I was wrong … but for the right reason. I saw immediately that number: 108 favorable situations. Also, immediately, I reported them to total number of cases, 216.

Rather, I should have compared that new “favorable” number to the inflexible number of unfavorable cases: 125. 125 is a given, it never changes.

The house edge would have come all the way down to 0% only if the casino would have added enough extra favorable situations to 108 to equal 125; e.g. the triple paying 19 to 1. In that case:

The infamous
Gambler's Fallacy was the first bullet shot at yours truly, as it were. I was
promoting the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG) and potentially winning
gambling systems derived from the FFG. My opponents, most of them vociferous
and aggressive, posed me with this “mathematical” situation:

“You lose once; the probability that you will lose next time is the same as
before. You lose twice; the probability that you will lose the third time in a
row is the same as before.... and so on.... *ad infinitum*, if you
will....” It's like a god of odds will always “create” losing outcomes for the
player (always winning situations for the gambling house)!

I created a special page dedicated to the gambler's fallacy and the reversed
gambler's fallacy:

·
*Gambler's Fallacy, Reversed Gamblers Fallacy,
Probability*

Ion Saliu,

Truthfully At-Large

*"A good man is an axiomatic man; an axiomatic man is a
happy man. Be axiomatic!"*